Escalating geopolitical conflicts suppress copper prices, with copper prices falling on Friday night [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, June 16: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,566/mt, dipping to a low of $9,532/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $9,654.5/mt near the close, and eventually closed at $9,647.5/mt, down 0.44%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest stood at 291,000 lots. On the same evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,910 yuan/mt, dipping to a low of 77,810 yuan/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 78,480 yuan/mt near the close, and eventually closed slightly lower at 78,350 yuan/mt, down 0.06%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest stood at 192,000 lots. On the macro front, on Friday, Israel launched a fierce airstrike on Iranian territory, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories, and resulting in the deaths of numerous military commanders and nuclear scientists. The intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East prompted the market to rush into safe-haven assets, pushing the US dollar index higher and weighing on copper prices. On the fundamental side, supply side, the widening of the price spread between futures contracts on Friday encouraged suppliers to actively sell, but the availability of standard-quality copper in Shanghai and Changzhou remained tight. Demand side, downstream buyers actively purchased and stockpiled on Friday, but the recent fluctuations in copper prices have led to a cautious sentiment among buyers, who are hesitant to make purchases. Looking ahead to this week, the market will focus on the US Fed's decision. It is widely expected that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, and copper prices are expected to find support at the bottom today.